carryover wednesday at hollywood

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big pick six carryovers abound to open the race week. although the fields at hollywood are smaller, it is my home track and there looks like no standout in the pick 6 races. here's my analysis, pre-scratches. for anyone morbidly curious, i will post my pick 6 tix shortly after the first leg goes off.

r1: madeittothemoon. i actually think we'll get a price on this breuer trainee with gf up. funny story about masakado kid, i was at del mar two years ago when he broke his maiden at 10-1. a good friend of mine told me this horse couldn't lose, blahblahblah- got bet down from a 30/1 morning line to 10/1 and looked like a 3/5 shot coming home. well, there was value once again a few weeks ago, but i'm betting against the 'kid repeating that performance. 'moon on the other hand, has a ton of talent and should go very well here in his second start back. favorite fierce heart scares me not at all and naughty nacho is cheapcheapcheap.

R3: flying pilot. this is a sad bunch of claimers and i will back 'pilot (can we see a gf almeida double??) first out for aguirre. dr. frank will no doubt run better at this level and deserves a look, as does fourth and long, who drops in from the bay. society sal showed speed and weakened for o'neill, so for anyone looking to cover this race, it look like you'll have to go 4 deep.

R4: Warm Welcome. i've about given up on skywalker red, who looked like a sure thing last out at the top of the lane, only to get run down by a couple of dogs late. i'll take a chance with the son of bertrando on the stretchout for hendricks. 'welcome gets a huge rider upgrade from lovato to flores; i got a hunch he's going to get bet down a ton, so there may not be much value here. the other one to look at is comebacking kofi, who has never hit the board, but looks set to fire fresh for jory.

r6: herecomes big g. ok, caesar is absolutely awful with firsters and his stock repeatedly does not fire first out. i may back him at juicy odds in here b/c the rest of the field is so empty. the other firster, kissy kate also catches the eye from the same connections as 'pilot in the 3rd race. can gf almeida win three races on a card. believe it or not, i was at the track the last time that happened at hollywood park, some ten years ago. a patron told me it was like watching haley's comet- it only happened every 76 years. i still remember the horses- diablo rouge, raines right, and lady snerd. rounded out a 5k all-gf pick-3. i digress....anyway, 'big g has trained well and has win early breeding with western fame on top- he should be running on at the end. 'kiss kat also has trained well in the mornings, should show more speed than 'big g and gets the coveted outside box.

r9: legendary traitors. this colt was cold on the board in special weight company and now gets the blinks on the drop for the money run. o'neiil and pval on a horse sure to show speed? sounds like a recipe for sucess to me.

good luck.
 

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GOOD LUCK TODAY MAZEL. NOTICED THAT KISS KAT WAS SCRATCHED EARLY. ARE U SINGLING HERECOMESBIG K??
 

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my p/6 tix today:

race 3: 2,3,6,9
race 4: 2,8,9
race 5: 1,3,5,6
race 6: 2,6,7
race 7: 1,2,6
race 8: 1

be back tomorrow.
 

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hmn, should've just singled the flying note, but he got sooo much action down to 3/2, i felt oddly compelled to spread.
 

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That MASAKADO KID is pretty good.
icon_smile.gif


Atleast Madeittothemoon showed.
 

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i'll bet against masakado everytime at 5/2. huge show payoffs --$12 on madeittothemoon b/c the fake favorite ran out.
 

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maz, when you pick a horse in a race, are you betting him to win or are you playing across the board. thanks
 

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blue,

totally depends on the race. if i think the favorite(s) is vulnerable, then i'm much more likely to bet across the board b/c of the comensurate increase in place/show payoffs when the favorite runs out. if there's a strong favorite, then i'm more likely to bet to win and play exactas/ pick-3s. many people just starting out mistakenly think all 5/1 shots are created equal. they're not. a 5/1 shot in a full field of 12 with a 5/2 or 2/1 favorite is not worth nearly as much as a 5/1 shot in five horse field where a 3/5 shot gets beat. what i mean is the win payoff will be the same, but the 5/1 shot that beats the 3/5 favorite will be worth a tremendous amount more in the multiple race exotics like the p/3 or pick-6 b/c a majority of the bettors are singling the heavy favorite.

so, there's no short answer to your question- other than it depends on the horse/race.
 

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oops... in case anyone cares/ is rooting for me to hit this pick 6, i made a mistake in my earlier post- my single in the finale is #5 legendary traitors, not #1 lago maggiore. if i was superstitious, i'd say that pretty much assured the #1 of winning the finale.

as for this, the 7th, somebody has a ton of confidence that notting hill can get loose on the lead and take 'em gate to wire (10k win, 5k to place at the first click, and the favorite in the doubles and pick3s). i didn't use her because i thought there was enough speed to keep the front end honest in here. that's my story, i'm sticking to it.
 

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oh well, that's what it's about. 'traitors had the lead at midstretch and just plain spit the bit. we'll get 'em next time.
 

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as I was saying in the other thread, sometimes the conselations make you money as it did today w/ the master mazel!!! You shoulda had a very good day mazel w/just yore regular betting; excellent picking my man. Did you see that church paid one million+ to a single ticket???
 

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hey mazel... just want to say thanks..


6 race race 6: 2,6,7


played triple box 5dollars.. pd 277.00

also my birthday is 6/27

thanks kidslick
 

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sammy, i hear ya re: consolations, but that's usually just enough to get you hungry to play the pick-6 again.

kid- glad to hear you cashed the trifecta. i did better betting my plays straight than i did in the pick-6, but i had a lot of "juice" going into the last leg.

best of luck guys.
 

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